El Dorado, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS64 KSHV 250006 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
706 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

 - We are edging back close to climatological averages now with
   less rainfall in the offing, average temps are mid (60s & 80s).

 - The upper low will become stationary in the short term, but the
   scouring of moisture yesterday has brought wholesale changes.

 - We still have the next upper low kicker and the discussed
   potential for a late spring cold front arriving for early in
   June for the long term forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 513 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A quick update was made to add additional POPs across portions of
the region. An area of strong to severe thunderstorms have develop
just west of our region, but short-term progs hint at some of this
convection making it into Smith and Cherokee counties in East
Texas over the next couple of hours. Additional isolated
convection could develop with daytime heating over a large
portion of our remaining forecast area, but this activity will
diminish just after sunset. /20/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Slightly drier upper 60 dew points are edging down into the I-20
corridor at this time. We will see a few more mid 80s around today
than previously thought and not much rainfall. There are a few
little blips on the KSHV dual pol 88D all, east of I-49 and we
continue a slight chance this afternoon. The upper low over TX is
lifting into position over NE TX and will hang around into
Tuesday. However, the big push yesterday scoured out most of the
deep moisture and can be seen over the central Gulf of America,
and up across SE LA and MS/AL. So not much for the TX low to work
with has brought in diminished rain chances from what was expected
last week for this Holiday weekend. Probably not many complaints
I would assume and still the wet pattern will resume with next
disturbance now moving over Baja.

This system will spread eastward and kick out the TX dry low with
another spoke extending toward Hawaii under the deep low offshore
of the NW Pacific. So the pattern is still full ghost rider and
May will see a good bit more rain with likely PoPs by mid to late
week. As mentioned earlier, the air mass expected to push a front
our way is a week away. The forecast of NBM in the long term is
leaning more in favor of the ECMWF with southerly winds lingering
all month. It`s 1021mb surface high will keep to the MidWest and
Great Lakes states, but the GFS is consistent with a large and in
charge surface high building to 1028mb by next Monday over MO/IA.

So we`ll see if the previous long term agreement is restored or
perhaps no front after all. Either way the SW flow aloft mid to
late will bring the rains again and potentially through the month.
And we will keep that going or maybe take another break from the
wet pattern if the GFS pans out. As far as our week ahead, the WPC
likes that notion of active SW flow with more ERO`s for our Four-
State area, with both some Slight and Marginal risks returning by
midweek with the Baja disturbance. Seasonal temperatures should
continue for much of this last week of May. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue this evening through much of the
overnight hours, with isolated to widely scattered convection
ongoing across the Wrn sections of E TX expected to diminish by
early to mid evening, but not affect the TYR/LFK terminals. Some
residual cu may linger through this evening through beneath cirrus
cigs, although these should eventually begin to thin overnight. As
it does so, patchy FG may develop across portions of Deep E
TX/NCntrl LA, with LIFR cigs possible. IFR/low MVFR cigs are
expected to develop between 12-15Z across Srn AR/N LA into
portions of Deep E TX, before gradually lifting into a VFR cu
field by midday/early afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
convection should develop over more of the region by mid and late
afternoon Monday, with enough confidence to add VCTS to the LFK
terminal near the center of a weak/broad area of low pressure
aloft and weak sfc bndry that should be draped across this area.
However, low confidence precludes mention to the remaining
terminals attm. Lt/Vrb winds tonight will become ENE around 5kts
after 15Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through Memorial Day. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  86  68  86 /  20  30  20  30
MLU  67  85  67  86 /  20  40  40  60
DEQ  62  84  63  83 /  10  20  20  50
TXK  65  85  66  86 /  10  20  30  40
ELD  64  83  64  84 /  10  40  40  40
TYR  68  87  68  88 /  30  20  10  10
GGG  67  87  67  87 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  68  89  68  88 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15